NGX Market Summary – Monday, October 27, 2025

The NGX All Share Index (ASI) closed marginally lower by -0.10% to 155,645.05 as the market began the week on a cautious note. Notably, trading volume plunged to 414.48M units (down 65% from the prior session), while market turnover slipped substantially by -37.90% to 16.99B Naira—a signal of reduced risk appetite and possibly profit-taking after recent robust gains. Market breadth was soft at 0.79x (30 gainers vs 38 losers), with declines outpacing advances, and most sectors reflecting a lackluster mood. Despite today's mild selloff, the YTD ASI return holds strong at 50.70%, while top gainers like ARADEL (+10.00%) and ASOSAVINGS (+9.09%) continue to post outsized returns. Meanwhile, a strong Naira buoyed sentiment in the background, appreciating by 0.16% versus the USD. As we start a new week, let's take a bird's-eye view of key trends, notable movers, and hidden opportunities shaping the market landscape.

Market Breadth & Notable Trends

• Market Breadth: Breadth tilted bearish, with 38 declining stocks overpowering 30 advancers (breadth ratio: 0.79x).
• Turnover & Volume:
  • Turnover fell sharply (-37.90% vs previous day), reflecting lower institutional activity and possible caution ahead.
  • Volume dropped to 414.48M units, with only 90 stocks showing volume gains.
• Notable Volume Surges:
  • ASOSAVINGS (+9.09%) traded 933% above its 90-day average!
    FIRSTHOLDCO and ACCESSCORP both also saw volume more than double their typical average.
• Bullish Momentum:
  • Several gainers (e.g., ASOSAVINGS - RSI 84.3, ARADEL - RSI 80.6) are deeply overbought, suggesting short-term upside could be capped and profit-taking may set in soon.
  • Technical crossovers (15DMA > 50DMA) in ETERNA, CHAMS, and others, with strong MACD readings, reinforce positive momentum—momentum traders take note.
• Bearish Momentum:
  • DEAPCAP and CHAMPION sit among both today's losers and bearish-momentum stocks, reinforcing ongoing sell pressure.
  • RSI values in the 50–55 range, not yet oversold, suggest lower prices may still be possible for some laggards.

Top Movers: Gainers & Losers (Gains, Losses)

• ARADEL is in a strong technical trend—record RSI (80.7), highest MACD among gainers, and big institutional inflows (over N5.3B today!)
• ASOSAVINGS is momentum king: top gainer last 5 days (+30.9%), outrageous volume spike, but RSI in overbought territory—short-term caution may be warranted despite its run.
• DEAPCAP and CHAMPION not only topped today's losers, but also show bearish momentum signals (price below 15DMA, negative recent returns, tepid RSI)—these stocks are in sustained downtrends.

YTD Gainers & Losers Table – Monday Spotlight

• N.E.M INSURANCE is the rare stock present in both today’s top gainers and YTD outperformers (+174.2% YTD): strong evidence of both short and long-term momentum.
• DEAPCAP sits atop the daily and YTD loser lists, despite being technically up YTD—a signal that it’s rolling over after prior runs.
• TIP (THE INITIATES PLC) holds an astronomical +468% YTD but negative this week (-3.40%), suggesting profit-taking is accelerating in high flyers.

Momentum Tables – Bullish & Bearish Insights

• Bullish stocks (e.g., ETERNA, CHAMS, ASOSAVINGS, ARADEL) are showing classic momentum signatures: price above fast-moving averages, elevated RSI, and positive/expanding MACD.
  However, ASOSAVINGS and ARADEL have RSI above 80 — usually considered extremely overbought; traders should monitor for signs of reversal.
• Bearish candidates (e.g., DEAPCAP, CHAMPION, FIRSTHOLDCO) show price slipping below 15DMA, with RSI not yet at a true oversold level—further declines may be possible before a base forms.

Contrarian Signals

• CHAMPION BREWERIES: Despite a neutral RSI (54.4) and slightly bullish MACD, its -9.8% YTD performance and aggressive -9.6% drop today signal a potential disconnect between price action and momentum indicators, hinting at a possible rebound if selling abates.
• DEAPCAP: Up YTD (31.7%), but today's bearish cross below 15DMA, consistent negative returns and drifting MACD, underline a clear momentum breakdown—caution for bottom fishers.
• NEM: Both a short-term top gainer and strong YTD performer, but RSI of 57 is not yet overbought; investors could be caught trailing the rally as momentum could eventually cool.

Sector Heatmaps

• Financial sector is seeing unusual volume spikes, signaling sector rotation or renewed speculation.
• Insurance stocks appear bifurcated: NEM's spectacular run stands in contrast to persistent weakness in WAPIC and UNIVINSURE.
• Petroleum stocks (ETERNA, ARADEL) are seeing new bullish surges—likely sector-wide trigger.

Dividend–Beta Matrix: Defensive Playbook

• Defensive opportunities may be found in CORNERST and LIVESTOCK: high yields, low beta, bullish technicals. Suitable for income-focused traders who seek low-risk upside.
• ETERNA is both a high beta play and showing strong bullishness—momentum with some underlying income kicker.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK accounted for 20.17% of institutional traded value today despite slumping -2.53%, highlighting institutional clustering in select blue chips likely due to portfolio repositioning.
• ARADEL's trade value and volume were heavily institutionally driven: over N5.3B institutional activity vs retail N280M, signaling confidence from smart money.
• FIRSTHOLDCO and ACCESSCORP also saw abnormally high volume/turnover with dominance from institutional flows; this can precede major trend reversals or continuations.

Analysis of Dividend Yield in Bullish/Bearish Tables

• ETERNA: Strong bullish price trend, with moderate 0.68% yield and slightly elevated beta.
  CHAMS: Moderate yield 1.56% but high volatility (beta > 1.1), suggesting yield alone should not be relied on in fast-moving stocks.
• CONHALLPLC (in bearish table): Dividend yield 2.08% but negative momentum—yield traps possible, watch for value plays among oversold names.

Trader Takeaways & Suggestions

• Momentum traders: Consider partial profit-taking on high-RSI names (ASOSAVINGS, ARADEL, NEM). Potential short-term mean reversion.
• Bargain hunters: Screen for former hot stocks now in sustained selloffs (e.g., DEAPCAP, CHAMPION), but confirm with improved RSI/MACD before acting.
• Defensive income seekers: Focus on low-beta, high-yield stocks with bullish momentum (e.g., CORNERST, LIVESTOCK).
• Institutional tracking: Watch stocks with unusual institutional inflows or clustering, as they can lead to large directional moves (ZENITHBANK, ARADEL, FIRSTHOLDCO). Volatility may spike further around these issues.
• Sector rotation: Petroleum and Insurance sectors are in play; financials show telling volume surges—adapt portfolios accordingly.
• Monitor caution zones: Today’s turnover plunge and rising decliners may signal that broader market correction is not concluded—consider tightening stops or hedges.

Previous Week's Trends

Last week, the NGX ASI was on a steady upward trend, peaking at fresh highs for the year, with financials and select industrials leading. However, by Friday, there were warning signs of exhaustion as volume stalled and more stocks began to lag, setting up the present cautious tone. The abrupt drop in turnover today confirms growing risk aversion as participants await clearer signals.

Trade Activity and Market Microstructure

• Institutionals drove the lion’s share of trade value (88.36% of all Naira traded), but only accounted for 37.93% of trade count—a typical sign of large block trades vs retail "noise.”
• Retail trade volume was lower (38.70% of total), reinforcing the idea that institutions are dictating market direction, especially in blue chips like ARADEL, ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, and MTNN.
• Top Retail Traded Symbols: MTNN, ACCESSCORP, ARADEL, ZENITHBANK, DANGCEM.
• Top Institutional Traded Symbols: ARADEL (heavyweight), ACCESSCORP, FIRSTHOLDCO, MTNN, ZENITHBANK.
• Patterns Noted:
  • Heavy institutional trading in gainers (ARADEL), but also in decliners (ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP), may reflect both accumulation on rallies and repositioning on weakness—a sign of rotation rather than a one-way market.
  • Unusual volume in speculative or low-priced stocks (ASOSAVINGS, UACN, TIP) indicates retail crowd chasing momentum, highlighting risks as well as opportunity for nimble traders.
  • Correlation with technicals: Most institutional "targets” today are trending—ARADEL (bullish, high volume), ZENITHBANK (bearish on the day, high institutional volume, perhaps distribution).

Hidden Insight: The steep drop in turnover and rising decliners, despite still-strong YTD returns, suggests the NGX is now entering a testing phase—with leadership narrowing to stocks with extraordinary technical patterns or institutional sponsorship. Aggressive profit-taking in overbought winners may create short-term volatility, while defensive, high-dividend, low-beta stocks with bullish crossovers warrant close focus as safe havens. Traders should adapt with a blend of sector rotation, technical discipline, and attention to order flow.